13
Bella Ciao
6yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 15
Chantilly · Prix Du Bois Laris Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 1/1 | 95% | 54% | -0.41 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 85% | +0.14 |