15
Joao
9yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 7
Chantilly · Prix Du Bois Laris Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#7
Rank
Odds
55/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/04/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 21% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.38 |