2
Melanies Joy
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 3
Chantilly · Prix Du Bois Laris Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 79% | +0.02 |
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 54% | -0.25 |
| 28/04/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 15/05/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 09/06/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | -0.01 |
| 19/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 93% | +0.05 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.03 |