1
Willower
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 11
Chantilly · Prix Du Bois Laris Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#13
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Angers | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 13/02/2026 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 45% | -0.47 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 36% | -0.19 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 70% | -0.22 |