3
Amelia
3yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 4
Chantilly · Prix De L'hotel De Vermandois Handicap · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Deauville | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Le Touquet | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 12-14 · tight 84/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 85% | +0.21 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 69% | +0.01 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 30/08/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |
| 17/09/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |