1
Navacerrada
3yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 3
Chantilly · Prix De L'hotel De Vermandois Handicap · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Deauville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 21% | +0.06 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 25/05/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |