5
Moon Rider
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 16
Chantilly · Prix Du Bois Bourillon Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Chantilly | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +7.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 15th | 9/1 | 53% | 7% | -0.46 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 24/06/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 02/08/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.21 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 79% | +0.26 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 29/09/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |