1
Nootka Bay
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 6
Chantilly · Prix Du Bois Bourillon Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#14
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Chantilly | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Chantilly | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 68/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 21% | -0.21 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 62% | +0.14 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 58% | -0.23 |
| 14/09/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 54% | -0.12 |