Lake Worth

3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 66

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Monmouth Park	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2025-10-17	Meadowlands	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2025-09-19	Meadowlands	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 57/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength26%

Delivery trend -15.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/09/2025	4th	14/1	26%	57%	+0.31
17/10/2025	6th	10/1	47%	44%	-0.03
12/09/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00