10
Mom Esterina
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 10 · OR 49
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 13/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 23/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |