5
Rolly
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 66
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength5%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |