1

Russian Hammer

6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 78

Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 84 · 7f 120 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 84 par30/01C8OR 84C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 14/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 93 · 6f 120 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 93 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 27/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 79 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 79 par27/02C8OR 79C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 80 · 7f 122 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 80 par27/03C8OR 80C7 @ Delaware Park 13/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Delaware Park 27/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 80 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 80 par27/05C8OR 80C8 @ Delaware Park 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 80 · 1m 124 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Delaware Park 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m 121 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 81 par1/07C8OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01Delaware Park?3rd3rd0
2026-06-18Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-27Delaware Park?3rd3rd0
2026-05-13Delaware Park?7th6th+1
2026-03-27Tampa Bay Downs?1st1st0
2026-03-13Tampa Bay Downs?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0113/0327/051/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20267th16/116%45%+0.30
14/02/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
27/02/20264th14/126%73%+0.46
13/03/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
27/03/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
13/05/20267th20/10%14%+0.14
27/05/20263rd14/126%60%+0.34
18/06/20262nd13/266%86%+0.20
01/07/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14