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I've Got A Notion

2yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 74

Delaware Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Delaware Park 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS9/09C6C6 @ Delaware Park 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 73 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 73 par17/09C6OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Delaware Park?6th3rd+3
2026-09-09Delaware Park?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0917/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 5-5 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +25.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20264th5/174%25%-0.49
17/09/20266th15/261%38%-0.23