5
Knockout Guy
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 60
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Turf Paradise | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Turf Paradise | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 12/02/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 22/03/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |