IvyArcIvyArc
7

Moral Power

3yo Gelding · 8-5 · Draw 7 · OR 76

Delaware Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Delaware Park 16/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m 119 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 64 par16/10C9OR 64C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 19/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 65 · 7f 119 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 65 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 02/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 64 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark02/01/2026 · OR 64 par2/01C9OR 64C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 64 · 1m39y Fas 119 · beat its mark11/01/2026 · OR 64 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 20/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 62 · 7f 123 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 62 par20/02C8OR 62C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m39y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 66 parC8 @ Delaware Park 22/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m110y Slo 117 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 66 par22/08C8OR 66C8 @ Delaware Park 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 68 · 1m 117 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 68 parC8 @ Delaware Park 23/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 71 · 1m70y Slo 119 · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 71 par23/09C8OR 71projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-09-09Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-08-22Delaware Park?10th10th0
2026-04-11Tampa Bay Downs?7th5th+2
2026-02-20Tampa Bay Downs?7th7th0
2026-01-11Tampa Bay Downs?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1011/0122/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength98%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20254th7/282%50%-0.32
19/12/20256th15/890%38%-0.53
02/01/20269th20/10%27%+0.27
11/01/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
20/02/20267th20/10%0%0.00
11/04/20267th33/10%0%0.00
22/08/202610th8/158%0%-0.58
09/09/20262nd25/10%83%+0.83
23/09/20264th9/153%57%+0.05