Opportune Notion
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 61
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 15/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 17/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |