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6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 79
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/01/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |