Tug
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 25/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |