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6

Howler

4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 79

Delaware Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Monmouth Park 22/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark22/06/2025 · OR 89 par22/06C6OR 89C6 @ Monmouth Park 01/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 93 · 6f Gd 112 · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 93 parC0 @ Monmouth Park 24/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f Fas 11724/08C?C5 @ Delaware Park 09/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 91 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 91 parC6 @ Laurel Park 07/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 5f110y Fas 122 · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 88 par7/12C6OR 88C5 @ Charles Town 10/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 91 · 4f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 91 parC6 @ Laurel Park 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 88 · 5f110y Fm 123 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 88 par12/04C6OR 88C0 @ Monmouth Park 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f Fas 120C5 @ Delaware Park 23/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 86 · 5f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 86 par23/07C5OR 86projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Delaware Park?1st0th+1
2026-06-06Monmouth Park?6th6th0
2026-04-12Laurel Park?7th7th0
2026-01-10Charles Town?2nd1st+1
2025-12-07Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2025-10-09Delaware Park?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/069/1012/0423/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength19%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20254th11/486%50%-0.36
01/08/20253rd11/271%67%-0.04
24/08/20253rd11/271%78%+0.07
09/10/20256th2/189%17%-0.73
07/12/20252nd10/382%86%+0.03
10/01/20262nd4/797%83%-0.14
12/04/20267th10/147%14%-0.33
06/06/20266th5/287%44%-0.42
23/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06