9
Imagine Erin
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 9 · OR 52
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-07-19 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/06/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |