Keystone State
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |