8
Mudslide
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 8 · OR 88
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 23/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |