Onyx Ten
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 101
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 8/15 | 97% | 25% | -0.72 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/10 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |