5
Sassafrassness
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 91
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |