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1

Gonzalo

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 73

Delaware Park · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength2%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 55 · 6f 124 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 55 par9/01C9OR 55C8 @ Laurel Park 12/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 6f 121 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 60 parC8 @ Laurel Park 06/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 60 par6/03C8OR 60C9 @ Charles Town 11/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 59 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 59 parC9 @ Laurel Park 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 53 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 53 par24/04C9OR 53C8 @ Delaware Park 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 57 parC8 @ Delaware Park 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 66 · 6f 118 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 66 par6/08C8OR 66C8 @ Delaware Park 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 68 · 6f 122 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 68 parC8 @ Delaware Park 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 72 par19/09C8OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Delaware Park?1st1st0
2026-09-09Delaware Park?3rd3rd0
2026-08-06Delaware Park?1st1st0
2026-05-29Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-04-24Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2026-04-11Charles Town?8th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0111/046/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength91%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/01/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
12/02/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
06/03/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
11/04/20268th2/189%13%-0.77
24/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
29/05/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68
06/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
09/09/20263rd10/147%50%+0.03
19/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16