7
Party On Rufus
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 7 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |