5
Real Blues
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 71
Delaware Park · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 01/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 06/07/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 09/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |