1
Beware
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 1 · OR 93
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets Progress Plate · 6f 47y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Kenilworth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 63/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/12/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |