4
Fox On The Run
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 97
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets Progress Plate · 6f 47y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Kenilworth | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Durbanville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 36/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/11/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |