5
Ozark
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 5 · OR 50
Durbanville · VHM Racing Syndicate D Stakes · 6f 47y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Durbanville | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Durbanville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 25/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 06/09/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 23/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |