Shifting Path
7yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 3 · OR 72
Durbanville · VHM Racing Syndicate D Stakes · 6f 47y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Durbanville | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 19/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |