7
Better Man
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 7 · OR 87
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Aviator Middle Stakes · 7f 210y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength98%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: +2.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-07-04 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Scottsville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 13/01/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 77% | -0.15 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 54% | -0.29 |