IvyArcIvyArc
6

Blind Date

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 87

Durbanville · Lucky Fish Aviator Middle Stakes · 7f 210y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

76%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

2 wins from 5 runs this year. Didn't need to improve to win 6-runner minor event at Kenilworth (8f, good to soft, 15/4). Off 108 days. Something to find on form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 10/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Hvy 13210/07C84 @ Durbanville 27/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Durbanville 08/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS8/1044 @ Kenilworth 22/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kenilworth 04/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS4/014C5 @ Kenilworth 31/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1324 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS3/0544 @ Kenilworth 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f210y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f210y GS 12921/06C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-21Kenilworth?1st1st0
2026-06-02Kenilworth41st0th+1
2026-05-03Kenilworth42nd1st+1
2026-01-31Kenilworth?10th10th0
2026-01-04Kenilworth43rd2nd+1
2025-11-22Kenilworth43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0722/113/0521/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
27/08/20255th7/163%60%-0.03
08/10/20253rd7/282%67%-0.15
22/11/20253rd6/168%78%+0.09
04/01/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24
31/01/202610th14/126%36%+0.09
03/05/20262nd9/276%89%+0.13
02/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16