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2

Diamond Rock

6yo Gelding · 8-4 · Draw 2 · OR 71

Durbanville · Lucky Fish Aviator Middle Stakes · 7f 210y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Latest win at Kenilworth in August. 14/1, creditable third of 9 in handicap at this C&D (good) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kenilworth 22/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS22/0244 @ Durbanville 25/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kenilworth 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f101y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS16/0544 @ Kenilworth 02/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Durbanville 14/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS14/0744 @ Durbanville 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kenilworth 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f210y GS 119 · HIGHER CLASS12/084C5 @ Durbanville 06/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1164 @ Durbanville 23/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS23/094projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Durbanville43rd2nd+1
2026-09-06Durbanville?7th7th0
2026-08-12Kenilworth41st0th+1
2026-07-25Durbanville43rd2nd+1
2026-07-14Durbanville47th6th+1
2026-06-02Kenilworth48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/022/0612/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength67%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/02/202612th100/10%15%+0.15
25/03/20269th33/10%20%+0.20
16/05/20264th40/10%57%+0.57
02/06/20268th28/10%13%+0.13
14/07/20267th28/10%25%+0.25
25/07/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
12/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
06/09/20267th10/147%14%-0.33
23/09/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38