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4

Soho Heartthrob

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 81

Durbanville · Lucky Fish Aviator Middle Stakes · 7f 210y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Latest win here in July. Creditable 4 lengths third of 8 to Miami Summer in listed race at this course (9.9f, good, 13/2) 11 days ago. Back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Vaal 02/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1192/09C6C5 @ Turffontein 16/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 119C1 @ Turffontein 01/11/2025 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/11C1C5 @ Kenilworth 22/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 126C5 @ Durbanville 18/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 12218/03C5C5 @ Kenilworth 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y GS 126C5 @ Kenilworth 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f210y GS 12921/06C5C5 @ Durbanville 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 126C4 @ Durbanville 26/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS26/09C4projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Durbanville?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-14Durbanville?1st1st0
2026-06-21Kenilworth?3rd3rd0
2026-05-19Kenilworth?7th7th0
2026-03-18Durbanville?3rd3rd0
2026-02-22Kenilworth?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0922/0221/0626/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20252nd11/893%83%-0.09
16/10/20254th15/890%67%-0.23
01/11/202515th40/10%0%0.00
22/02/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
18/03/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
19/05/20267th33/10%40%+0.40
21/06/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44
14/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
26/09/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08