7
Captain's Angel
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 75
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Maiden Plate · 7f 210y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength97%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Durbanville | ? | 7th | -2th | +7 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | -2th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 35/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -9.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |