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11

La Splendida

3yo Colt · 9-2 · Draw 11 · OR 66

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Maiden Plate · 7f 210y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

25/2, fourth of 14 in maiden at this course (7f, good) 11 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13218/04C8C8 @ Durbanville 26/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12626/09C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Durbanville?4th4th0
2026-04-18Kenilworth?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0426/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +23.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20267th11/142%40%-0.02
26/09/20264th17/255%77%+0.22