9
War Hawk
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 9 · OR 30
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Maiden Plate · 7f 210y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength61%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Durbanville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-02-26 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-05 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-01-18 | Kenilworth | 5 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2024-11-23 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-11-05 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2024 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/08/2024 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/11/2024 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 23/11/2024 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 18/01/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 05/02/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 26/02/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 36% | -0.29 |