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3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 60

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength96%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Finger Lakes 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS6/10C6C6 @ Finger Lakes 20/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 55 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 12/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 52 · 1m Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 52 par12/11C6OR 52C6 @ Finger Lakes 08/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 54 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 54 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 57 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 57 par30/06C6OR 57C6 @ Finger Lakes 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m70y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 57 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 60 par27/07C6OR 60C6 @ Finger Lakes 10/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 60 · 1m70y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 60 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 22/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 59 · 1m70y 121 · below its mark22/09/2026 · OR 59 par22/09C9OR 59projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-08-10Finger Lakes?5th2nd+3
2026-07-27Finger Lakes?3rd0th+3
2026-07-13Finger Lakes?4th1st+3
2026-06-30Finger Lakes?3rd0th+3
2026-06-08Finger Lakes?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/108/0627/0722/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength97%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20255th5/174%43%-0.31
20/10/20254th5/174%63%-0.11
12/11/20252nd25/10%83%+0.83
08/06/20264th20/10%25%+0.25
30/06/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44
13/07/20264th33/10%57%+0.57
27/07/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
10/08/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
22/09/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28