Darby Dreams

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 37

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼2

Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-16	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-25	Finger Lakes	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-08-05	Finger Lakes	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 63/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength91%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/08/2026	9th	40/1	0%	11%	+0.11
25/08/2026	8th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
16/09/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	75%	+0.22