IvyArcIvyArc
6

Joe G Twentythree

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 54

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Saratoga 01/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 58 · 6f 122 · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 58 par1/08C9OR 58C9 @ Penn National 20/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 33 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 33 parC9 @ Penn National 17/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 40 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 40 par17/04C9OR 40C9 @ Finger Lakes 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 39 · 4f110y 120 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 39 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 11/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 50 · 5f 119 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 50 par11/05C9OR 50C6 @ Finger Lakes 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 47 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 47 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 52 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 52 par8/06C6OR 52C6 @ Finger Lakes 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 51 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 51 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 22/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m70y 121 · below its mark22/09/2026 · OR 65 par22/09C9OR 65projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Finger Lakes?6th6th0
2026-06-30Finger Lakes?4th1st+3
2026-06-08Finger Lakes?5th2nd+3
2026-05-27Finger Lakes?2nd-1th+3
2026-05-11Finger Lakes?6th6th0
2026-04-28Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0828/048/0622/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength64%

Delivery trend +7.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20255th15/261%0%-0.61
20/03/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
17/04/20267th4/179%0%-0.79
28/04/20262nd4/596%80%-0.16
11/05/20266th4/179%38%-0.41
27/05/20262nd25/10%80%+0.80
08/06/20265th12/137%0%-0.37
30/06/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
22/09/20266th14/126%0%-0.26