Strongest Link

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 53

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARK

Move▼2

Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Finger Lakes	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-08-26	Finger Lakes	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-07-20	Finger Lakes	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 32/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength63%

Delivery trend -16.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/07/2026	5th	12/1	37%	50%	+0.13
26/08/2026	6th	20/1	0%	38%	+0.38
22/09/2026	4th	15/2	61%	40%	-0.21