5
Mizty Fog
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 45
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 51/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 11/06/2026 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 19/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |