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2

Guilty

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 83

Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 27 · 6f110y 121 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 27 par19/09C6OR 27C6 @ Aqueduct 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 61 parC6 @ Aqueduct 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 66 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 66 par22/03C6OR 66C5 @ Aqueduct 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 67 · 7f 126 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 67 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 6f Slo 126 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 64 par25/05C8OR 64C5 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 65 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 65 parC5 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 67 par25/07C5OR 67C5 @ Finger Lakes 25/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 6f 124 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 75 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 81 par15/09C5OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-08-25Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-07-25Saratoga?8th8th0
2026-07-04Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-05-25Belmont At The Big A?2nd5th−3
2026-04-18Aqueduct?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0918/0425/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20252nd20/10%86%+0.86
14/11/20256th5/174%17%-0.57
22/03/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
18/04/20267th4/179%0%-0.79
25/05/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
04/07/20264th33/10%73%+0.73
25/07/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
25/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
15/09/20261st15/890%100%+0.10