3
Not For Hire
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 85
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 16/08/2025 | 10th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |