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Two Thirty A. M.

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 67

Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Finger Lakes 16/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 67 · 5f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark16/06/2025 · OR 67 par16/06C5OR 67C5 @ Finger Lakes 14/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 72 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 72 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 04/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m70y 120 · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 75 par4/08C5OR 75C5 @ Finger Lakes 09/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 72 · 6f 121 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 72 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 06/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 5f110y 121 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 72 par6/10C5OR 72C8 @ Finger Lakes 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 5f110y 121 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 75 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 13/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 6f Slo 119 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 78 par13/11C5OR 78C5 @ Finger Lakes 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Gd 121 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 73 · 5f110y Slo 122 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 73 par31/08C5OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Finger Lakes?7th7th0
2026-06-10Finger Lakes?7th7th0
2025-11-13Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2025-10-27Finger Lakes?1st4th−3
2025-10-06Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2025-09-09Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/069/0913/1131/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/06/20252nd13/891%67%-0.25
14/07/20255th1/195%0%-0.95
04/08/20255th5/174%43%-0.31
09/09/20253rd8/158%71%+0.14
06/10/20253rd5/174%60%-0.14
27/10/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
13/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
10/06/20267th10/147%0%-0.47
31/08/20267th12/137%0%-0.37