5
Idyll Gossip
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 75
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 08/07/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |