4
Observer
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 64
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |