1
Practical Rachel
6yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 10/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |