3
Redwineandwhiskey
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 77
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |